Impending economic problems?
I've decided that I want to make notes about my economic predictions here. I hope to look back later and see how well I've anticipated future trends.
I believe that the US dollar is in bad shape and that a serious correction is due. James Turk uses a "fear index" that computes what percentage of the US dollars in circulation (M3) is backed by the Treasury's gold reserves. Right now it's just above 1% an it's NEVER been that low in the past 50 years (or probably more)! If people lose faith in the dollar, we will see gold prices skyrocket and the US economy fall apart, correcting the imbalance between gold and dollars. (Note that gold is making progress against most major currencies too.) The S&P 500 has been losing value against gold in the past couple years, which is not apparent when viewed in dollars. The US debt (government, personal, and trade) has skyrocketed. I think we have reached a decadent peak and we are in for a major correction. The housing boom sustained us for a while, but that is precarious now too.
I suggest getting into gold and investing for a bear market (short selling finance, housing, etc. investing in US exporters and gold stocks). I have shifted my small savings in this direction.
I am afraid that the most vulnerable will be hurt (as usual) in this impending crisis. I wish I knew what communities could do to protect themselves. I wish the government would institute policies to protect the most vulnerable, but they won't. Doing so wouldn't be rocket science, just a matter of will.


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